We need something to watch during the few days between the end of the major conference regular season and the start of their tournaments. That's where these small conference tournaments fit in. With four more starting this weekend, their finals will be played on Monday and Tuesday and will bring the excitement of little-known schools punching their ticket to the Big Dance. Before we get there, though, there may be some betting opportunities along the way.
Southern Conference (March 4)
Early-round bet: Citadel vs. East Tennessee State (Projected line: -4)
East Tennessee State has played much better down the stretch, with a win over Furman and a competitive loss to league leader Chattanooga. That is more than I can say about Citadel, who lost by 10 at home to ETSU two weeks ago.
Pick: East Tennessee State (-4 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Wofford vs. Chattanooga (Projected line: -3)
The goal at the end of the season for Chattanooga and Furman was to avoid perennial SoCon troublemakers, Wofford, in the semifinals. The problem is that Wofford slipped to the 4-seed, so the league champion Mocs will need an upset from VMI in order to avoid the Terriers. If this matchup does happen in the semis, we'll bet on underdog Wofford.
Pick: Wofford (+3 or better)
Colonial Athletic Association (March 5)
Early-round bet: Elon vs. UNC Wilmington (Projected line: -3)
Despite a record that was good enough for a share of the regular-season CAA title, there's reason to believe that UNC Wilmington might be vulnerable. If this 2-7 matchup is lined at more than a 3-pointer, I'll be on Elon as an underdog.
Pick: Elon (+3 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Drexel vs. Towson (Projected line: -6.5)
If Drexel can get by Delaware in the semifinal, they might have the best chance of anyone to knock off Towson. Both regular-season matchups were tightly contested 4-point games, so at the very least, getting a half-dozen points would be worth a bet.
Pick: Drexel (+6 or better)
Summit League (March 5)
Early-round bet: South Dakota vs. UM Kansas City (Projected line: PK)
I fully expect this neutral-site game to be a pick'em, given that when these two teams met a little over a week ago, UM Kansas City was -2.5 at home. That was a small adjustment from back in December when they met in South Dakota, and the Coyotes were -3.5 at home.
Many metrics have these two teams rated equally, but one exception is ESPN's BPI, which favors UMKC slightly. In the two aforementioned matchups, the Roos hopped out to halftime leads of 12 and 17 points on the way to victories. I'll be hoping they can do the same here and advance.
Pick: UMKC (-2 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Oral Roberts vs. South Dakota State (Projected line: -6)
South Dakota State has more failures in this tournament than you'd expect from a team that's been the class of the Summit League for a long time. After a comeback effort fell short in a 90-88 loss to Oral Roberts in the semifinal last year, a rematch is likely something the Jackrabbits have been waiting for.
In their lone matchup this season, scoring was fast and furious as they combined for 176 points in regulation before the Jackrabbits won in overtime on the road. Now in a neutral environment, there's a better chance that South Dakota State gets Max Abmas and the Golden Eagles out of sync, especially from deep. Meanwhile, the Jackrabbits are arguably the best shooting team in the country.
Pick: South Dakota State (-5.5 or better)
America East (March 6)
Early-round bet: Albany @ Hartford (Projected line: -4)
The two matchups between Albany and Hartford this season have been fascinating. Both games were tied at the half, only to see the road team pull away for a comfortable win. To me, those second halves are outliers, but they show that neither team is overwhelmed by the others' home court.
Pick: Albany (+3 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: UMBC @ Vermont (Projected line: -14)
I'll go to my grave with the semi-rational take that UMBC's biggest upset in 2018 was knocking off Vermont to win the America East. Sure, they went on to become the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but beating Virginia without De'Andre Hunter was an easier task than anyone cares to admit. Winning on the road at conference powerhouse Vermont for a ticket to the Big Dance was wildly impressive. It would be even more impressive this year.
Vermont is better this year than it was in 2018, and UMBC is worse. Yet the Retrievers are the 2-seed in the America East and will be getting some credit in the marketplace for a game that should have them as nearly 15-point underdogs.
Pick: Vermont (-14 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
