The SEC Tournament is the most underrated of the conference clashes. College basketball fans and the media wax poetic about the days of the old Big East and the ACC at the peak of their powers. However, no matter the location, SEC teams and their fanbases have brought peak excitement to the neutral site event for the last two decades.
The tournament returns to Tampa this year, and while it's not as much of a hotbed as Nashville, a half-dozen teams with a chance to do major damage in March and their rabid supporters will make this coming weekend as profoundly electric as usual.
Tournament odds:
| Team | Odds | Tournament Status |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | +150 | 1-seed contender |
| Auburn | +200 | 1-seed contender |
| Tennessee | +400 | Safely in |
| Arkansas | +700 | Safely in |
| LSU | +1600 | Safely in |
| Alabama | +1800 | Safely in |
| Mississippi St. | +4000 | Outside looking in |
| Florida | +5000 | Outside looking in |
| Texas A&M | +5000 | Needs auto-bid |
| Ole Miss | +12500 | Needs auto-bid |
| Vanderbilt | +12500 | Needs auto-bid |
| South Carolina | +15000 | Needs auto-bid |
| Missouri | +20000 | Needs auto-bid |
| Georgia | +25000 | Needs auto-bid |
Kentucky is the favorite since the program is both getting healthier and has the upside of the traveling home-court advantage Big Blue Nation provides. It also helps that the Wildcats are perceived to have the cozier side of the bracket.
If we were prone to snark, we could have described Georgia's status as "needs miracle." There's a pretty distinguishable line between the top six sides and the rest of the conference after Florida lost to Kentucky on Saturday. Maybe a run to the final gets the Gators some consideration on Selection Sunday, but there's not much of a bubble here.
We'll skip the technical first round for our best early-round plays in favor of the teams' first contests on Thursday.
Early-round bet to make
Texas A&M vs. Florida - Projected spread (UF -1.5)
March 10, 12 p.m. ET
I'll take Buzz Williams over Mike White any day of the week, especially in a noon game on a Thursday. Florida has consistently underachieved in White's tenure, and someone may have noticed if it wasn't for Chris Chiozza's miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament years ago.
Texas A&M was one late-game mess at Vanderbilt away from finishing the season with six straight covers, while the Gators no-showed in the first half of a must-win home matchup against the Wildcats. Expect Williams to have a plan for Colin Castleton, as the Aggies held the Florida big man to just 10 field-goal attempts in a one-point win earlier this campaign.
Pick: Texas A&M (+1 or better)
South Carolina vs. Mississippi St. - Projected spread (Mississippi St. -4)
March 10, 6 p.m.
South Carolina has shown an ability to win away from home against the bottom half of the conference - Mississippi State has not. Each team comfortably claimed a victory at home with a near-identical game script in their two matchups so far this season, but I trust Frank Martin to have the Gamecocks ready for Iverson Molinar. Conversely, Ben Howland has disappointed with better talent than he possesses this year in Starkville.
Pick: South Carolina (+3 or better)
Late-round matchup to target
Arkansas vs. Auburn (Projected line: -2.5)
Semifinal, March 12
Arkansas is going to have its hands full with LSU in the quarterfinals - a rematch from a wild game at Bud Walton Arena last week. If the Razorbacks can survive the Tigers, they might be worth a bet against the SEC's other Tigers squad.
Auburn has been a dominant force at home but much more vulnerable on the road, and virtually every matchup between the top six teams in the conference has resulted in a slight victory for the home side. With the contest taking place on a neutral court, it's likely the only time we would get an underdog by more than a basket amongst this group.
Look for Jaylin Williams to hold up against Jabari Smith and JD Notae to give the Razorbacks a late go-to scorer while the Tigers struggle to get Smith the ball in key situations.
Pick: Arkansas (+2 or better)
Best bet to win the tournament
The top of the bracket is chaos: Any of LSU, Arkansas, or Auburn could make the final, and the matchup between Nos. 8 and 9 adds two desperate teams to the mix.
With Kentucky as a prohibitive +150 favorite, the best value is on Tennessee (+400) because of the possibility that Alabama could do the Vols' dirty work for them. The Crimson Tide can beat anyone on a given day, but I don't trust them to string together four wins. Alabama's second game would be against the Wildcats, which won't be a walkover for the latter.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will be a significant favorite in its first contest before becoming a short underdog to Kentucky or -2 against the Tide. If the Volunteers make the final, they'll be in a pick'em game against one of the three aforementioned programs, and you'll be sitting there with a +400 ticket.
Pick: Tennessee +400
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
