Conference play is finally here, and Week 4 brings a ton of amazing SEC matchups. The Big Ten also has some solid games, including an Oregon program looking to save its College Football Playoff hopes against USC under the lights.
Here are our picks and favorite bets against the spread.
👉 Check out all college football Week 4 lines on theScore Bet
Our trio of betting writers - Brenden Deeg, Dane Belbeck, and Eric Patterson - will make picks against the spread for the week's biggest games all season.
Brenden Deeg breaks down a few of this week's marquee games, adding his own analysis and insights. He also identifies three hidden gems that may be going overlooked by the public.
Game time: 12 p.m. ET
🏈 Bet: Texas (-5.5)
These are two of the biggest programs in the country, but it'll be only their third meeting, and the first since the 1968 season. This game has a lot at stake, as both hold 3-0 records and rank in the top 15.
All eyes will be on Arch Manning at Neyland Stadium, but the young signal-caller can have success against Tennessee's defense. Manning has been great over the last two seasons against zone coverage, which the Volunteers have run at an 84.5% rate this year, the ninth-highest mark in the nation, according to TruMedia. Manning also has a 0.28 EPA per dropback against zone since 2025, ranking 18th among 98 qualifying quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Tennessee is blitzing only 22.2% of the time in 2026, the 92nd-highest rate, which means it'll likely struggle to pressure Manning unless it changes its scheme, especially given how good Texas' offensive line has been.
While all the focus is on Manning in a tough environment, how about Faizon Brandon getting his first start against a good defense? Longhorns defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is one of the best in the business, and he'll throw a lot at the freshman to get him in trouble. I think Tennessee can hang around early, but Texas will take over in the second half and win by a touchdown.👉 Add Texas to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Florida (-3.5)
We're getting Ole Miss as underdogs after it took down LSU in one of the season's biggest matchups. If this line holds, the Rebels would become just the fifth team ranked inside the top five since 1978 to close as an underdog against a team outside the top 20.
However, I think the right program is favored, and I'm riding with the Gators at the Swamp. This Florida team matches up well against an Ole Miss run defense that's posted a success rate of just 58.2% - ranking 98th in the nation. Now, the Rebels face the best running back in college in Jadan Baugh, a projected 2027 first-round pick who's averaging an absurd 8.5 yards per carry on 54 attempts and leads the country with 30 missed tackles forced. Notably, Ole Miss has the second-most missed tackles (46) among all Power 4 programs.
Trinidad Chambliss has been incredible, but Florida's pass-rush is ferocious. The Gators' 49 total pressures rank sixth in all of FBS, and they sacked Byrum Brown seven times last week. Like Brown, Chambliss is an elusive quarterback, and I see Florida's front seven causing enough chaos in the pocket to get the Rebels' signal-caller off his game and make a few mistakes.
Remember that stat about only four top-five teams since 1978 closing as underdogs against a team outside the top 20? Those previous four teams are 0-4 against the spread. Give me Florida to win by four or more at home. 👉 Add Florida to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Oregon (-3.5)
In a heavy SEC week, this is arguably the most interesting game on the card. USC is 4-0, while Oregon is 2-1 and looking to save its season after losing to Oklahoma State in the year's biggest upset.
Though the Trojans are desperate to make the CFP under Lincoln Riley, I think their defensive woes under the head coach are still a problem. Last week, they allowed 460 yards and 27 first downs for 35 points against a bad Rutgers team. While the Ducks' biggest issue on offense is their offensive line, the Trojans have generated just a 33.6% pressure rate (58th in the country) against three Group of 6 programs and Rutgers.
This is a must-win game for Oregon, and I think it's the more talented team. Quarterback Dante Moore should be able to get whatever he wants against USC's defense, and I see running back Jordon Davison having a nice night. The Trojans will also be without freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley, who's arguably their best offensive weapon. I like the Ducks to quiet the noise and get back into the national title contender race. 👉 Add Oregon to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 12 p.m.
🏈 Bet: Sam Houston State (+34.5)
One of the sneakier surprises of the 2026 season is how Sam Houston State has played. Although it's 1-2, the program is 3-0 against the spread and holds the best cover margin of any FBS team at 57 points, covering every game by an average of 19 points. The Bearkats have also come close to winning outright, with two close losses as double-digit underdogs to Tulsa and Troy. A 59-0 blowout over Nicholls last weekend gave them their first win.
Sam Houston State quarterback Landyn Locke is getting national attention for his hot start. He ranks 32nd in the country among single-callers in passer efficiency rating (168.9), and he's thrown for over 310 yards in every game this year, compiling nine total touchdowns to just one interception. Locke is a legit FBS quarterback who should put points on the board Saturday.
On the other side, Texas Tech is 0-3 against the spread and coming off a close 28-26 win over Houston. It just hasn't looked like the Big 12 juggernaut it was projected to be this season. After Sam Houston State, the Red Raiders have eight straight games against Big 12 opponents and will likely want to leave Saturday's outing healthy before conference play. Texas Tech will probably win by multiple scores, but this spread feels too large. Give me the Bearkats to cover this big number. 👉 Add Sam Houston State to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
🏈 Bet: TCU (-2.5)
After a tough loss to North Carolina in London to start the year, TCU has rebounded by dominating lesser opponents. The Horned Frogs now sit at 2-1, overwhelming Grambling State and Arkansas State by a combined 80 points and covering the spread in both games.
TCU quarterback Jaden Craig has looked solid after a down opener, completing 77.3% of his passes for 728 yards and nine touchdowns over his last two contests. He seems to have a good feel for Gordon Sammis' offense, and he'll get his best weapon back in wide receiver Jordan Dwyer, who's making his season debut Saturday.
Meanwhile, UCF will have nine players sidelined with injuries for this contest, including starting quarterback Alonzo Barrett, who's missing his second straight start. Last week, backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins struggled against Georgia State, completing 7 of 17 passes for 86 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Knights will have to rely on their ground game to prevail on Saturday, but TCU was stout against the run against North Carolina and boasts a 73.4% defensive rush success rate this year, ranking ninth in the nation. The Horned Frogs are the better team with Barrett sidelined, and I like them to cover this small number. 👉 Add TCU to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
Game time: 8 p.m.
🏈 Bet: FAU (-11.5)
If you haven't been following the bottom of the FBS, here's how Louisiana Monroe's season has gone: The Warhawks are 0-3, including a loss to FCS program Southeastern Louisiana and a 62-13 beatdown by Mississippi State.
On top of that, Louisiana Monroe has negative total EPA on both offense and defense, posting the sixth-worst net EPA in the country. Head coach Bryant Vincent also clashed with fans on social media following last weekend's loss, so it wouldn't be outlandish to say things are deteriorating for the Warhawks.
Last week, I got the cover with Florida International over Florida Atlantic, but the Owls played well and are no slouch. They have a legit win on their resume, recording an eight-point victory over Navy in a game they led by 24 entering the fourth quarter. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has 866 passing yards this season while leading Florida Atlantic to a 2-1 record, and he should cook this awful Warhawks defense. Give me the Owls to win by at least two touchdowns. 👉 Add FAU to your betslip on theScore Bet here.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
CA: Please play responsibly. AB (18+) & ON (19+) only. If gambling is affecting your mental health or well-being, 211 Alberta is here to help. Call or text 211 or visit ab.211.ca (AB). Call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca (ON).
