Running analysis of the World Cup group stage

Our soccer writers share their observations and insights throughout the 2026 World Cup.

Tuesday, June 16

Anything you can do ...

What. A. Day.

The 2026 World Cup has been spectacular thus far, with endearing upsets enlivening the tournament in the early days. But things kicked up another gear Tuesday, when a trio of the game's biggest superstars made their mark and stole the show. First it was Kylian Mbappe with a brace in France's win over Senegal. Then Erling Haaland, making his World Cup debut, matched the Frenchman with two goals of his own in a victory over Iraq.

But the last word, as it so often does, belonged to Lionel Messi.

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His hat-trick in Argentina's 3-0 triumph over Algeria - the first three-goal game of his already storied World Cup career - simultaneously tied him with Miroslav Klose for the all-time tournament scoring record (16 goals) and reminded the likes of Mbappe, Haaland, and any other challengers that Messi is still the guy. The GOAT isn't going to relinquish his throne without a fight, wonky hamstring and advancing age be damned; Messi turns 39 next week, but you wouldn't know it the way he shredded Algeria in Kansas City.

Something special happens when he pulls on the Albiceleste shirt.

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Haaland quickly took to social media to call Messi a "madman" after the sensational performance, while sports stars like Patrick Mahomes - who was in attendance in his home NFL stadium - said all that was needed with the simple usage of one familiar emoji.

If this World Cup turns into a game of constant one-upmanship amongst a collection of the sport's best and brightest, this could end up being an all-timer of a tournament. (Cristiano Ronaldo, you're on the clock). Frankly, we all deserve to see it.

We're not even a full week into the competition, and the 2026 World Cup has already had a little bit of everything. Long may it continue. - Gianluca Nesci

Haaland has arrived

Erling Haaland wasted absolutely no time making his mark in his first World Cup match. The prolific Norway superstar scored twice in the opening half of his tournament debut against Iraq, showing off all the attributes that have made him one of the most dominant strikers on the planet.

His first goal in the 29th minute was quintessential No. 9 work.

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Haaland then pounced on a brutal defensive error from Iraq to double his World Cup total late in the first half. His two goals came on just 11 first-half touches. He's inevitable (and clinical, clearly).

Haaland now has 57 goals in just 51 appearances for his country. We're talking about video game numbers here.

A reminder: the record for most goals ever scored at a single World Cup is Just Fontaine's remarkable tally of 13 from the 1958 tournament. It was long believed that would simply never be eclipsed. Haaland may have something to say about that this summer. - Gianluca Nesci

France flips the switch

Soccer fans were probably asking the same question at halftime of France's goalless draw versus Senegal: What's happening with Didier Deschamps' men? France, the champion in 2018 and a finalist four years ago, looked disconnected and vulnerable in the first half Tuesday, registering just one shot that wasn't even on target. Senegal created better openings and should've been ahead after the initial 45 minutes in New Jersey.

Then, France reminded us why no one wants to go up against its superb side this summer.

Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, and Co. - who had an uncharacteristically quiet first half - flipped the switch to lead France to a 3-1 victory. Olise's incredible assist for Mbappe's clinical finish opened the scoring. Adrien Rabiot then delivered an outstanding assist of his own to help substitute Bradley Barcola score. An absolute banger from Mbappe in the final minutes - moments after Senegal had trimmed down the lead - sealed the triumph in spectacular fashion.

Barcola was one of many standouts who weren't even included in France's star-studded starting XI, proving this team's absurd depth. Rayan Cherki also came off the bench late, too. And Deschamps didn't even need to use attackers Marcus Thuram and Jean-Philippe Mateta.

France's biggest stars woke up in the second half, and the team explored its unfair depth up front to take down a strong Senegal squad. Just like that, the two-time champion turned a concerning first half into a statement victory. Good luck to the other 47 teams. - Caio Miari

France robbed of penalty?

Perhaps the most questionable call of the 2026 World Cup so far took place Tuesday in New Jersey when referee Alireza Faghani determined that Sadio Mane's sliding challenge on Kylian Mbappe in the box wasn't a penalty.

The VAR told Faghani to review the incident on the pitch-side monitor, but after a brief check he concluded the French superstar "initiated the contact" on the play. Mbappe looked flabbergasted when the referee announced his final decision to the crowd. The incident instantly set social media ablaze, with fans and pundits criticizing the non-call. Was it a penalty? You be the judge.

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Mbappe might have taken the non-call personally, as he opened the scoring for France against Senegal with a clinical finish minutes later. He then sealed the victory with a banger in the dying seconds to become the all-time top scorer for France's men's team with 58 goals. - Caio Miari

Monday, June 15

Group H already bonkers

It wasn't quite in the same category as Monday's earlier shocker between Spain and Cape Verde, but Uruguay's 1-1 stalemate against Saudi Arabia in the group's other contest was certainly a surprise. (The Saudis are making a habit of opening their World Cup campaigns with eye-popping results against South American powers that wear blue and white.)

What looked on paper to be the most straightforward quartet of all is suddenly very messy after the first round of fixtures, and the looming group finale between presumptive favorites Spain and Uruguay creates even more potential for chaos and an unexpected finishing order. The two sides combined for 59 shot attempts Monday in their respective matches but mustered just one goal; Saudi shot-stopper Mohammed Al-Owais made 10 saves, including a brilliant late fingertip stop on Uruguayan captain and long-range shooting expert Fede Valverde. Who had Al-Owais and Cape Verde's Vozinha as the two standout players of the day? Not me.

The most interested onlooker in all this might just be Argentina.

Group H crosses over with Argentina's Group J in the round of 32, where the reigning world champion is expected to come out on top - after what we've seen so far, perhaps it's foolish to expect chalk. Most probably anticipated an Argentina versus Uruguay last-32 encounter once the dust settled. Now? Absolutely anything is possible. - Gianluca Nesci

Stunner for Spain

Well, who saw that coming?!

Pre-tournament favorite Spain was held to a shocking 0-0 draw against World Cup debutant Cape Verde on Monday. Not even Lamine Yamal, who came off the bench in the 71st minute after overcoming his hamstring injury, could save Spain against one of the smallest nations to ever compete in the global showpiece. Every major tournament needs an early stunner to really get the adrenaline going, and they don't come much bigger than this one.

The inquest has likely already begun for Luis de la Fuente and his staff. Spain lacked any type of incisive movement for roughly 60 minutes, often settling for feeble sideways passes and, most surprisingly, high crosses as things became more and more desperate; Spain fired 40 crosses into the box, and Cape Verde's defenders diligently kept smacking them away from danger.

On the rare occasions La Roja did craft openings, goalkeeper Vozinha stood tall with a series of great saves. The 40-year-old netminder made seven stops, and Spain failed to hit the target with 20 other efforts. Bubista's Blue Sharks delivered a heroic defensive performance in front of him, putting their bodies on the line to block shots and make last-ditch tackles to keep the European powerhouse off the board in the Group H contest in Atlanta.

Spain, the overwhelming group favorite, still has time to recover in matches against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Yamal and fellow winger Nico Williams, who was also thrown on in the closing minutes, should start going forward now that they're fit again, and that should give Spain a massive boost. But Monday's goalless draw is yet another reminder that anything can happen at the World Cup, and no match is guaranteed.

If any team knows and understands that lesson, it's Spain. The Spaniards' lone World Cup win came in 2010. Their first result in that tournament? A 1-0 loss to Switzerland. - Gianluca Nesci

Numbers behind Cape Verde's heroics

Cape Verde's unexpected draw with Spain is already one of the main storylines of the 2026 World Cup, and some jaw-dropping numbers illustrate how big an accomplishment the Blue Sharks recorded Monday.

• Spain had 74% of ball possession, yet Cape Verde conceded just one foul all game, the fewest by a team at a World Cup game since 1966.
• The Blue Sharks became the first African nation since 2002 to avoid a defeat in its World Cup debut.
• Spain and Cape Verde place second and 67th on FIFA's world rankings, respectively. The gap between the two nations was the ninth largest ever in a World Cup game.
• Vozinha, Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper, is the oldest 'keeper to have a clean sheet in his World Cup debut.
• Since 2018, no goalkeeper has made more saves from inside the box while keeping a clean sheet at the World Cup than Vozinha (six).

Vozinha, who plays for second-tier Portugal club Chaves, headed into the game with roughly 50,000 followers on Instagram. His profile is now at 7.6 million (and counting). - Caio Miari

Sunday, June 14

Koeman's subs doom Dutch

Going into this summer's tournament, Ronald Koeman made it clear the Netherlands was targeting a first-ever World Cup title. If the Oranje's opening match was any indication, the biggest impediment might be Koeman himself.

The Dutch tactician's conservative second-half substitutions came back to bite his side in Sunday's 2-2 draw against Japan. Leading 2-1 in the 70th minute, Koeman removed Crysencio Summerville - scorer of his team's second goal - Donyell Malen, and Tijjani Reijnders. Not long after, he subbed Ryan Gravenberch in favor of adding a fifth defender, Nathan Ake, to the mix to try and see out the win. Japan promptly equalized from a corner kick in the 88th minute after mounting pressure in the Dutch half.

"I have no regrets," Koeman said after the contest when asked about his subs. He should have plenty.

The moves totally handed the initiative to Japan. Instead of trying to stay on the front foot and put the game out of reach, Koeman's alterations forced the Netherlands to retreat, sit deep, and invite pressure. Yes, Japan's late equalizer involved a big slice of luck - Daichi Kamada unknowingly redirected the ball into the net for one of the most fortuitous goals he'll ever score - but Koeman's moves paved the way for Japan to tilt the field in the latter stages. Removing Summerville and Malen, two rapid players who would've had space to exploit on the counter while Japan pushed forward in search of an equalizer, was particularly baffling considering he replaced them with significantly slower players in Memphis Depay and Teun Koopmeiners, who were largely anonymous after coming on.

The Netherlands has the squad balance and top-end talent to make a very deep run in this competition ... if the oft-criticized coach doesn't get in the way. - Gianluca Nesci

Curacao's historic debut

Forget the final score.

Curacao played its first World Cup match Sunday against Germany and left a good impression while making history along the way. Dick Advocaat's side, representing the smallest nation ever to participate in the tournament, came to play in the first half versus the four-time champion and should be proud despite a 7-1 loss. The CONCACAF team wasn't intimidated by one of soccer's global powerhouses despite the talent gap between them.

Curacao's courage, early discipline, and willingness to play slick football were rewarded with a stunning debut goal in the 21st minute (against Manuel Neuer, no less). The reaction and emotion from fans and players at Houston Stadium are already among the best images from the 2026 tournament. The Blue Wave belong at the World Cup.

Curacao even had some momentum and offered relative danger to Germany after scoring in the first half. However, it only lasted a few minutes until the first "hydration break," the (widely despised) three-minute mandatory stoppage in play that's enforced at the midway point of each half, regardless of the playing conditions at this summer's tournament.

If in-game timeouts were a thing in soccer, Germany coach Julian Nagelsmann presumably would have considered calling one halfway through the first half to calm things down and adjust his team. That's basically how the break affected Sunday's game, killing Curacao's momentum and ultimately helping Germany take control of the match; the Germans found the net again in the 38th minute en route to a blowout victory.

Let's be clear: Germany would've beaten Curacao even without the hydration break. The talent gap between the two nations is immense. However, we've now seen multiple teams adversely impacted by the in-game break - Haiti had a similar experience against Scotland - and this will likely continue to be an issue throughout the tournament. - Caio Miari

Germany ready for bigger tests?

Germany added another eye-popping victory to its World Cup resume with Sunday's big win. Six different players scored for the four-time champion, including Kai Havertz, who contributed with two goals.

The blowout triumph also helped Germany rewrite the record books. No other nation has more World Cup goals than the Germans, whose 239 tallies now rank ahead of Brazil (238). Additionally, Germany is the only country to score seven or more goals in a World Cup game four different times. Hungary ranks second, accomplishing the feat in three games.

It's hard to make much out of Germany's lopsided win, though. Curacao, making its World Cup debut, did give Germany some trouble early on, but Julian Nagelsmann's team eventually dominated to seal an expected win.

However, the team will need to show some improvement in key areas - particularly in its defensive system - ahead of real tests in a tricky Group E. Ivory Coast (June 20) and Ecuador (June 25) await. - Caio Miari

Saturday, June 13

Brazil must improve quickly

Of all the teams with a legitimate chance to win the 2026 World Cup, Brazil is by far the most lopsided. The Selecao opened their tournament with a 1-1 draw against Morocco on Saturday, getting bailed out by a sumptuous Vinicius Junior goal that rescued an otherwise disjointed display.

"We started on a really bad note," the Real Madrid star said after the match. "For certain, we got to hold on to the ball. We have to move better."

Decorated manager Carlo Ancelotti, brought in to end the five-time champion's distressing 24-year title drought, cited nerves as the main reason for Brazil's poor outing against Morocco. But while Brazil should improve as the players get more settled, there's no magical instant fix for this team. This is who the Selecao are: an unbalanced squad with huge question marks in central midfield (and at full-back) that will succeed or fail based almost entirely on what Vinicius and the star-studded attack can produce.

Ancelotti obviously wants to get as many of his gifted forwards on the pitch together as possible, but doing so leaves his team extremely vulnerable in midfield, where Bruno Guimaraes and 34-year-old Casemiro were badly outplayed by teenager Ayyoub Bouaddi in New Jersey. It seems unlikely that Ancelotti will totally overhaul his tactics this late in the process, which means it's primarily up to Vinicius to carry the team on his back. - Gianluca Nesci

Friday, June 12

USMNT rises to the occasion

The United States men's national team sure picked a perfect time to deliver its best single-game performance at a World Cup since a pair of 3-0 wins all the way back in the inaugural 1930 tournament. More than just the four goals scored - the most the squad has ever recorded in one World Cup match - Friday's 4-1 demolition of a shell-shocked Paraguayan side was as complete a showing as we've seen from this team on the sport's grandest stage.

To wit: Paraguay had just two touches in the U.S. box in the first half. Both of them came in the opening minute. The South Americans were totally smothered after that, unable to handle the relentless ferocity of the U.S. press, the intricate dribbling of Christian Pulisic, or the clever movement and finishing instincts of Folarin Balogun, who found the net twice. Aside from a small dip in intensity during the second half while already leading 3-0 - totally understandable - this was flawless from Mauricio Pochettino's team, and precisely the kind of result that can get an entire country behind its squad on home soil. (The crowd at SoFi Stadium was electric from the first minute, which also bodes very well going forward.)

The lone concern coming out of the Group D opener was Pulisic's early substitution, but both he and Pochettino seemed to downplay the calf knock after the match.

The United States' road to this World Cup was long and labored. There was scandal, coaching drama, dour performances, and the threat of a frustrated fan base becoming apathetic. Friday, though, was near perfection in every way. - Gianluca Nesci

Should Marsch drop David?

Canada's 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the co-host's opening match Friday in Toronto was both an historic result and an aggravating missed opportunity; the Canadians recorded their first-ever point at a men's World Cup, but could easily have collected all three were it not for some atrocious finishing and bad luck in front of goal.

The stalemate leaves head coach Jesse Marsch with more questions than answers after the contest. Integral striker Jonathan David was once again out of sorts, missing a glorious opportunity just moments before Bosnia's opening goal, and looks totally bereft of confidence after a difficult first season at Juventus. He was substituted in the 61st minute - a rarity under Marsch - and Canada's attack looked more threatening and dynamic without him. David hasn't scored a goal since April, and hasn't found the net in open play for his country since last year.

"Without him at his best, we are not the same team," Marsch said after the match, according to TSN's Matthew Scianitti.

Cyle Larin, whose benching was Marsch's biggest lineup decision going into the match, scored Canada's lone goal, and should get an opportunity to start the next game against Qatar.

Meanwhile, Ali Ahmed's introduction in place of Tajon Buchanan, another stalwart, gave Canada a new attacking dimension with his ability and comfort to cut inside and combine with the strikers after Buchanan's more direct and vertical approach was largely kept quiet on the wing.

David and Buchanan have long been considered untouchable pieces of Canada's starting lineup, but after seeing the instant impact that Larin, Ahmed, and even Jacob Shaffelburg and Promise David made off the bench, Marsch may need to make some very tough calls going into the team's next game against a Qatar side that will sit in a defensive shell. - Gianluca Nesci

The new normal?

Welcome to the new-look World Cup, where soccer matches are broken up into four quarters, and you're liable to miss some of the action on TV because certain broadcasters are desperately trying to cram more and more advertisements into their match coverage.

When FIFA announced that every 2026 World Cup match would have mandatory three-minute "hydration breaks" at the midway point of both halves - regardless of the playing conditions, mind you - the governing body insisted it was in the interest of player welfare.

However, it wasn't difficult to see through that messaging, and the widespread concern was justified quickly. In the tournament opener between Mexico and South Africa, U.S. broadcaster FOX cut away to full-screen ads (as expected) during the second-half hydration break and didn't return to the game until after play had already resumed. Viewers were ... not pleased.

Relitigating the hydration breaks is pointless since they're here to stay for the next month-plus. And there's obviously nothing wrong with broadcasters showing ads while the game's paused. This is, of course, entirely common throughout the sports world, and perhaps it was naive to think the "Beautiful Game" wouldn't eventually get in on the money-making opportunity. Notably, Telemundo, the Spanish-language U.S. rights holder, won't cut to commercials during the breaks and will instead have analysts discuss the match during the intervals.

But missing live game action because you wanted to squeeze in an extra commercial is obviously unacceptable and a total disservice to fans. Viewers will mostly be willing to forgive a one-time blip if that's all it was, but anything more will spark serious outrage. - Gianluca Nesci

Thursday, June 11

Mexico inspires home crowd

Co-host Mexico kicked off the 2026 World Cup with a solid 2-0 win over South Africa at the iconic Estadio Azteca on Thursday. Mexico scored early, played with a man advantage for most of the second half, and took a comfortable win to give Mexican fans hope that history can repeat itself on home soil for El Tri.

Mexico's best World Cup campaigns to date came in 1970 and 1986 when the team reached the quarterfinals, both times as the host. Hosting again in 2026, El Tri will play all their group stage matches in their homeland. Topping Group A would keep the team in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and possibly the round of 16), giving Mexico an advantage in what could be a special tournament for Javier Aguirre's men. The roar of the home crowd when Julian Quinones scored the tournament's first goal was electric. - Caio Miari

South Africa exposes early concerns

Mexico deserves credit for its opening victory, but we need to address the elephant in the room here. The quality of the expanded World Cup with 48 teams is already concerning. South Africa didn't look good at all Thursday, and its head-scratching display fell well short of the standard we'd like to see at soccer's greatest tournament. South Africa sits 60th in the FIFA rankings, still ahead of eight teams competing in North America this summer.

South Africa's first game also shows what teams should avoid in this tournament. Goal difference will be huge for third-place teams to potentially qualify for the knockout rounds. South Africa is already at minus-two with zero goals scored; it faces Czechia next without two starters who received red cards against Mexico. Not ideal. - Caio Miari

And we're off!

Co-host Mexico scored the first goal of the 2026 World Cup within the opening 10 minutes of Thursday's tournament opener against South Africa. Winger Julian Quinones - the top scorer in Saudi Arabia this past season - capitalized on a brutal defensive error to send the already raucous Estadio Azteca into raptures.

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After four long years of waiting, the greatest sporting spectacle on the planet is back. - Gianluca Nesci

Co-hosts take center stage

Mexico, looking to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since it last hosted the event in 1986, opens the tournament at the iconic Estadio Azteca. The footballing cathedral should provide an enormous benefit to El Tri, whose performance under veteran bench boss Javier Aguirre can charitably be described as unspectacular.

The United States, a third-place finisher at the first World Cup in 1930, has openly talked about parlaying the power of home-field advantage into its best World Cup showing yet. Final or bust, then? Mauricio Pochettino appears to finally have a settled XI ahead of his team's opener against Paraguay on Friday, and the expected return of defender Chris Richards from an ankle injury gives the U.S. a timely boost in terms of lineup and morale.

Canada, meanwhile, continues to battle a variety of fitness issues. Somehow, the injury bug doesn't seem satisfied with the giant bite it's already taken out of Jesse Marsch's squad.

The status of star defender Moise Bombito remains unclear, midfielder Ismael Kone is suddenly battling a fever that forced him out of training Wednesday, and captain Alphonso Davies has yet to take part in a full team training session as he continues to recover from his hamstring ailment. Canada should get its first World Cup win (and point) and advance out of Group B, but the task gets more challenging each day. - Gianluca Nesci

One final GOAT-off?

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are no longer at the peak of their powers. Considering they have a combined age of 79 - Messi turns 39 later this month, and Ronaldo is 41 - it's remarkable that the two are about to play in their record-breaking sixth World Cups at all. But Father Time remains undefeated; this is almost certainly the last World Cup for both icons.

That means it's also the last chance we'll have to possibly see them clash directly at the World Cup. The simplest path to the blockbuster matchup involves both Argentina and Portugal winning their respective groups (J and K), which would set them on a collision course for the quarterfinals. A variety of outcomes and pathways could also cause them to lock horns in the round of 16, or even the final.

Messi vs. Ronaldo at World Cup

Messi is trying to lead Argentina to back-to-back titles and break Miroslav Klose's record for most World Cup goals; he needs only three to tie the benchmark of 16 tallies. Ronaldo, looking to help Portugal win its first world title, is chasing down the scarcely believable milestone of 1,000 career goals (he's sitting on 973). The storylines are endless.

Frankly, we all deserve to see this last dance in some form. - Nesci

New-look World Cup in many ways

To the delight of Gianni Infantino, the 2026 World Cup will be unprecedented: Three co-hosts, 48 teams, 104 matches, and 1,248 players will make this summer's extravaganza the largest in soccer history.

There will also be a slew of rule changes introduced, with FIFA and the International Football Association Board (IFAB) aiming to eliminate time-wasting and avoid crucial refereeing mistakes that have an outsized impact on results. Here are some of the new measures you'll see.

• VAR powers expanded (seriously)

Just what everyone wanted, right? The video assistant can now review any instance in which a player has been shown a second yellow card and therefore gets sent off; previously, only straight red cards were reviewable. However, the VAR cannot intervene to check for potential second bookings for anyone already on a yellow. The on-field referee still has some power, at least.

The awarding of a corner kick can also be checked, but that must be done quickly enough to overturn the on-field decision before play has restarted. When in doubt, take your corners quickly.

• Countdowns for goal kicks, throw-ins

Referees will visibly start a five-second countdown if they deem that a player is taking too long over a goal kick or throw-in; it won't automatically start when the ball goes out of play, however, and will instead be at the discretion of the match official. If a player deliberately wastes time to restart play, a corner kick or throw-in could be awarded to the opposition.

• Timed substitutions

Players will have 10 seconds to leave the pitch (at the nearest point) when their number is shown by the fourth official for a substitution. If they don't comply, their teammate cannot enter the match for at least one minute, and the team must play down one man until the next stoppage in play.

At some point, someone (and their team) will get burned by one of these new laws. Let's hope the rule book, the most mundane thing of all, isn't the biggest talking point of this World Cup. - Nesci

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